What the Phoenix Housing Market Actually Looks Like Right Now

By Andrew Ricks

Andrew Ricks is a real estate agent serving the greater Phoenix Metro and East Valley, including Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Tempe, Queen Creek, Scottsdale, and surrounding communities.

Everybody has an opinion about the housing market right now. Your neighbor, your coworker, people who haven’t looked at the actual data in a while. Most of what you’re hearing is based on national headlines that may have nothing to do with what’s happening in your neighborhood this summer.

We’re in the middle of the busiest season for real estate, and there’s been a lot of noise. Mortgage rates have been bouncing around, headlines keep calling for a crash that hasn’t come, and inventory is shifting. Through all of it, people are trying to figure out whether this summer is the right time to buy, sell, or stay put.

I want to cut through that noise and show you where things actually stand.

Home prices are stable, not spiking or dropping. The Phoenix median home price is sitting at around $457,000, compared to about $417,000 for the national average, and both are up less than 1% from this time last year. That’s not the double-digit appreciation we saw during the pandemic, and it’s not a correction either. It’s steady. Prices do tend to peak as we move from spring into summer, and that pattern is holding, but we’re not seeing the kind of runaway appreciation that priced people out a few years ago. For both buyers and sellers, that kind of stability is actually a healthy thing.

Mortgage rates have improved since last summer. Rates are in the mid-6 % range right now, down from last summer. The 30-year fixed rate is averaging around 6.4%, down from the high 6% range a year ago. That improvement has brought some buyers back into the market who had been sitting on the sidelines. Rates aren’t going back to 3%, but the trend has been gradually improving, and every fraction of a point matters when you’re financing a home.

Buyers have more options than they’ve had in years. Inventory growth is one of the biggest stories of the summer. Locally, we’re sitting at about 3.5 months of supply, down slightly from a year ago, mainly due to increased buyer demand. New listings have been climbing throughout the spring, which means buyers have more to choose from, even with the added competition. Sellers who price correctly are still seeing strong demand, and well-positioned homes are still moving.

The economy is noisy, but real estate has stayed steady. The stock market has hit all-time highs multiple times this year, consumer confidence is low, tariffs are in the mix, and energy prices are climbing because of global conflicts. Through all of it, real estate has been one of the steadiest assets you can hold. Incomes across Arizona have continued to rise as well, and with prices staying steady and rates declining, there’s real evidence that housing affordability is actually improving despite the headlines. Homes are still selling, prices are holding, and the people making moves this summer are doing it with better information than we’ve had in years.

The national and metro pictures are clear. The market is stable, rates are better than last year, and there’s more inventory than we’ve seen in a while. But these numbers are just the starting point. What really matters is what’s happening in your neighborhood and your specific situation.

If you want to know what the market actually looks like in your area right now, I’ll walk you through the real numbers so you’re making decisions based on data, not headlines. Call or text me at 480-405-0450, email me at andrew@soldbyricks.com, or visit soldbyricks.com, and request a free market analysis built around your home. I look forward to hearing from you.